Annotated retirement planning research notes

Withdrawal research answers a specific question

A modeled starting withdrawal rate applies to a particular portfolio, time horizon, spending rule, and success threshold. Morningstar's 2025 base case reports 3.9% for a 30-year horizon and 90% success under its stated assumptions. It is one modeled case, not a universal replacement for 4%.

• Record the horizon, asset allocation, confidence threshold, fees, and spending rule beside every rate you compare.
• Dynamic spending methods can raise lifetime spending by accepting year-to-year reductions; decide whether that trade fits fixed expenses.

Longevity and benefit dates change the bridge

SSA's life expectancy tool reports population averages based only on sex and birth date. It does not incorporate health, lifestyle, or family history. Use it as a baseline, then test longer lives and a surviving household member.

Full retirement age depends on birth year and reaches 67 for people born in 1960 or later. Put claiming choices and benefit estimates in the cash-flow timeline instead of leaving them out of the FIRE number.

A useful review packet

• A current spending ledger that separates taxes, insurance, irregular replacements, and health costs.
• Three return and inflation scenarios, plus an early bear-market scenario.
• Expected Social Security or pension income by claiming date and survivor case.
• A written rule for cutting spending, returning to paid work, or taking another action if the portfolio falls below a chosen threshold.

Limits

The cited research and government tools use generalized assumptions. They do not account for a household's taxes, health, portfolio, benefits, or risk tolerance, and none can guarantee that assets will last.

Sources

• Morningstar State of Retirement Income 2025 report
• Social Security Life Expectancy Calculator
• Social Security Retirement Age Calculator
• SEC Investor.gov free financial planning tools

The source-check date records editorial review. Routine builds do not advance it.

Revision history

• 2026-09-07 — Published after reviewing the cited government tools and research report.